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Climate Impact Company U.S. Medium Range Report
Issued: Thursday March 26, 2026
Highlight: Warmth shifts into the East and loses amplitude in the medium range; Re-expansion of warmth across the Southern U.S. extended range.
Charts of the day: U.S. soil moisture, trend, and precipitation outlooks.
Discussion: About 75% of the U.S. is experiencing dry-to-drought conditions. Impactful wetter trend is occurring in the Great Lakes region and vicinity in March while most of the dry soil zones are missing important precipitation. The 15-day outlook for the U.S. offers significant rainfall in the Mid-south States, more wet weather for the soaking wet Great Lakes region, but is mostly dry and shifting drier for the western Great Plains where drought is forecast to expand during late spring.
Medium-range 6-10 Day Forecast Valid March 31-April 4, 2026 (ECM ENS and 24-hour change)
Discussion: ECM ENS is used in today’s medium range temperature anomaly outlook. The forecast continues to ease the previous West into Central U.S. warm pattern while warming the East including a less cold change for New England.
Medium-range 11-15 Day Forecast Valid April 5-9, 2026 (ECM ENS and 24-hour change)
Discussion: Clouds and wet weather centered on the Mid-south States are causal to a cooler forecast while anomalous warmth lingers on the East Coast. California is rewarming while cooler weather organizes in the Northern Rockies.
U.S. Medium-range Precipitation Forecast
Discussion: ECM MAXRES indicates significant precipitation across the Midwest U.S. in the 6-10-day period. The wet weather extends to the Mid-Atlantic States rather than Texas. In the 11-15-day period, a below average confidence forecast indicates wet weather in Texas to the Carolinas. The lack of MJO/tropical forcing suggests southern latitude rains under-achieve.
Days 16-20 Extended range Temperature Forecast valid April 10-14, 2026
Discussion: The 16-20-day forecasts vary widely. Preferred is rewarming of the Southwest, turning colder Western Canada, and moderately warmer than normal across the South to East U.S. Dryness is biased toward the western Great Plains while the Ohio Valley is wet.