MJO-Inspired Heavy Rain for Brazil, Once Effect Fades, Brazil Drier into New Year
12/10/2025, 3:38 am EST
Cold Retreat to Canada; New York/New England at Risk of Returning Cold Late December
12/12/2025, 9:53 am EST
Climate Impact Company Daily Feature
Issued: Thursday, December 11, 2025
Highlight: Next arctic air mass forms in Western Russia; Threat to Europe?
Fig. 1: Utilizing all models, the daily average temperature for Europe through 15 days reveals potential colder risks in the extended range.
Discussion: Lack of snow cover is helping to propel a mild climate across Europe. However, a colder change may be on the way in the extended range (Fig. 1). Stratospheric warming propelling an arctic air mass in Canada and into the East U.S. during early December shifts westward to Asia during the next 2-3 weeks (Fig. 2). The emerging stratospheric warming over Asia will cause a cold air mass to initiate across Northern Asia into early next week (Fig. 3). In the 6-10-day period, the cold sprawl reaches westward across Western Russia (Fig. 4). As snow cover expands, arctic air becomes enhanced across Western Russia in the 11-15-day period (Fig. 5). The snow depth in Western Russia is deepening significantly through the next 15 days (Fig. 6) but not reaching Europe. The 16-20-day forecast indicates the cold pattern continues in Russia while Europe is shifting cooler to near normal (Fig. 7). Colder air to shift into Europe is present but requires snow cover for the westward migration.
Fig. 2-3: The 15-day 10 MB temperature anomaly forecast from GFS and the Asia 1-5-day (GFS) temperature anomaly forecast.
Fig. 4-5: The Asia 6-10-day and 11-15-day temperature anomaly forecast from GFS.
Fig. 6-7: The day-15 snow depth forecast by GFS and 16-20-day temperature anomaly outlook by CFS V2 for Europe to Central Russia.