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Climate Impact Company Dynamic/AI Models Verification Report
Issued: Thursday, February 26, 2026
Highlight: AI models SLIGHTLY better than Non-AI models past 30 days for medium range 2-meter temperature forecasts in North America and Europe
Fig. 1: The North America medium range skill scores forecasting 2-meter temperature, all models, for the past 30 days. Source: CWG/SVWM.
Fig. 2: The Europe medium range skill scores forecasting 2-meter temperature, all models, for the past 30 days. Source: CWG/SVWM.
Discussion: A comparison of anomaly correlation skill scores of 2-meter temperature forecasts between AI and NON-AI forecast models for North America and Europe yield extremely close results with AI edging NON-AI for both the 6-10-day and 11-15-day timeframes for North America while NON-AI managed to finish slightly ahead of AI in Europe for the 11-15-day period. The review is based on skill scores from the past 30 days. Conventional thought is AIFS ENS is consistently the best model. In the review provided, AIFS ENS finished first for days 6-10 and 11-15 in North America and days 6-10 in Europe while GFS ENS (surprisingly) was the top Europe 11-15-day forecast model. Other consistently top performers are ECM ENS and Graph Cast. The Operational GFS and ECM are generally the least skillful models in the provided review.