Mild Winter in Europe. But! Cold Periods in Western Russia to Track.
09/23/2026, 5:56 am EDT
Climate Impact Company Week 2-4 Outlook
Australia
Issued: Friday September 25, 2026
Highlight: Drought concern (in Australia crop areas) increasing.
Charts of the day: Daily soil moisture anomalies; 10-day rainfall forecast.
Discussion: Drought is “sneaking up” in Australia. In the East, dry soil conditions are expanding and now include the Southeast Coast. The Northwest Australia drought us strengthening a southern reach to Coastal Southwest Australia. The 10-day outlook combing GFS and ECM indicates significant rain in southeast/south portions of Western Australia and possibly the Southeast Coast while elsewhere is dry. Forecasts are very hot South and Southeast Australia through the next 5 days.
Week-2 Ahead (October 4-11, 2026): Hot Southeast.
Discussion: The GFS ENS “respects” the influence of drying soil regions on the Australia climate pattern and is selected as the best “weeklies” model in the outlook. Indicated during early October is anomalous heat risk, particularly in Southeast Australia, where recent soil moisture TREND is driest.
Week-3 Ahead (October 11-18, 2026): Hot Southwest and Southeast.
Discussion: As the middle third of October arrives, anomalous heat is confined to regions where soil moisture trend is driest, Patchy rains are indicated on the Northwest and Northeast Coast.
Week-4 Ahead (October 18-25, 2026): Southern half of Australia is hot.
Discussion: After mid-October, significant widespread heat is possible.