Hot Peaks Ahead Late July for ERCOT!

Climate Impact Company ERCOT Report

Issued: Friday, July 24, 2026

Highlight: Hot peaks are ahead for late July; Week 3-6 CDD outlook adjusted hotter.

Fig. 1: Utilizing all models, the 15-day population weight daily average temperature for ERCOT.

Discussion: ERCOT System record demand this week is likely eclipsed by a substantially hotter weather day occurring late JUL/early AUG based on the latest 15-day ERCOT population weight daily average temperature forecast (Fig. 1). During late July Dallas roars to 106F (Fig. 2) and Houston 101F (Fig. 3) guaranteeing a much hotter system temperature average compared to the past few days. The ERCOT CDD 1-6-week forecast is hotter than normal in the 3-6-week range and revised hotter from forecasts generated midweek (Fig. 4). Generally, a drier than normal climate through late meteorological summer 2026 helping to inspire the heat.

Fig. 2: Utilizing all models, the 15-day calendar style maximum temperature forecast for Dallas, TX.

Fig. 3: Utilizing all models, the 15-day calendar style maximum temperature forecast for Houston, TX.

Fig. 4: The ERCOT System 6-week cooling degree day forecast using the ECMWF model. Red equals warmer changes, blue equals cooler changes.