When Will the North Atlantic Tropics Turn Dangerously Active?
07/21/2024, 8:37 am EDT
Southeast Great Plains Drought Risk
07/23/2024, 4:31 pm EDT
Fig. 1-2: The 12Z ECM and GFS are agreeable to an extreme heat episode in the Great Plains during the 6-10-day period.
Discussion: The latest 12Z ECM and GFS 6-10-day temperature anomaly outlook is agreeable to developing extreme heat in the central Great Plains (Fig. 1-2). High temperatures reach 100F-105F from the Dakotas to Oklahoma during the period. Using ECM, the peak day is day-10 which is July 31 (Fig. 3). The 12Z ECM ENS widens the impressive heatwave back into the West, still peaking in the Central U.S., and stretching to eastern North America (Fig. 4).
Fig. 3-4: The 12Z ECM maximum temperature forecast on day-10 (July 31) and the 12Z ECM ENS 11-15-day temperature anomaly forecast.