Warm North Atlantic Surface but Upper Ocean Heat Gulf of Mexico Decreases Sharply
08/16/2026, 3:37 pm EDT
Climate Impact Company Week 2-4 Outlook
South America
Issued: Tuesday August 18, 2026
Highlight: Southeast Brazil rains persist; Occasional cool weather Argentina.
Charts of the day: ECMWF projects Northern Brazil drought/Southeast Brazil flooding for spring.
Discussion: Evolution of serious drought across Northern Brazil while flooding rainfall is likely across Southeast Brazil is indicated by the spring 2026 season forecast according to ECMWF.
Week-2 Ahead (August 23-30, 2026): Cool Argentina; Southeast Brazil rain.
Discussion: Cool weather visits Argentina to finish meteorological winter while Brazil is somewhat warmer than normal. The clash of each air mass is the catalyst to heavy rain in Southeast Brazil.
Week-3 Ahead (August 30-September 6, 2026): Ongoing Southeast Brazil wet risk.
Discussion: Mostly warm and dry across Brazil except for ongoing wet risk in Southeast Brazil.
Week-4 Ahead (September 6-13, 2026): Cooler Argentina; Southeast Brazil rains.
Discussion: Utilizing ECM, cool weather returns to Argentina while Southeast Brazil are ongoing.