The Climate Impact Company 2022 North Atlantic seasonal activity forecast has increased slightly since the initial projection one month ago. The number of tropical storms, hurricanes and intense hurricanes each increases by a count of 1 to 20 storms, 10 hurricanes and 5 intense hurricanes. The ACE index increases from 135 to 149. The increase in activity is due to a more confident La Nina climate forecast.

Summer drought forecast for the Great Plains risk is fading due to short-term heavy rainfall risk. More broadly, the wet weather in early-to-middle May in the Great Plains could regenerate due to the cool Northeast Pacific and warm Gulf of Mexico SSTA pattern.

Climate forecasts for the warm season indicate expanding drought in the Great Plains. However, short-term forecasts are trending much cooler and wetter especially the next 10 days. ECMWF indicates widespread several to as much as 5-6 in. of rain. Climate signals are not particularly supportive of this event BUT forecast models are definitely trending in the cooler/wetter direction.

An excellent predictor of level of intensity that tropical waves moving off the Northwest Africa Coast during the peak (AUG/SEP) of North Atlantic tropical cyclone season is the rainfall forecast for tropical Africa. Based on an analog focused on presence of La Nina and negative Indian Ocean Dipole the global tropical environment favors a wetter than normal tropical Africa regime during AUG/SEP 2022.