04/14/2022, 9:08 am EDT

Indian Ocean Dipole Update: Strong negative phase ahead!

The Australia Bureau of Meteorology is projecting an intense negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (-IOD) to evolve during early winter and peak in intensity during quarter 3 of 2022. The -IOD pattern will sustain the La Nina-inspired persistent upper-level low-pressure trough pattern over Southeast Australia which has caused many excessive rainfall events.
04/13/2022, 7:46 pm EDT

Pacific Decadal Oscillation/Multidecadal Oscillation Update

Big years are agreed upon for North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. Interestingly, the North Atlantic is cooling steadily. The tropical North Atlantic index has dipped to -0.33C. Meanwhile the cool phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation continues. Eastward expansion of ocean heat wave NEP22A will need to shift toward the North America coast to end the -PDO regime which is very much in question right now.
04/11/2022, 4:02 pm EDT

La Nina to Hang On!

The upper ocean heat pattern across the equatorial Pacific tells the story as a recent Kelvin Wave weakened La Nina. The Kelvin Wave influence is fading and resurgent cool waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific has regenerated and La Nina is now better-organized. We await the next Kelvin Wave as to whether La Nina fades (or not).
04/11/2022, 8:18 am EDT

Unwanted Cold Emerges in Ukraine and Shifts West across Europe

An unusually chilly air mass in that region is expected to develop and widen in the 6-10-day period according to GFS. The chill is strongest over Ukraine and just to the north in Western Russia. At that time minimum temperature risk dipping to <32F/0C is evident with several areas to 28F/-3C. In the 11-15-day period, GFS pushes the cold pattern westward across Europe. At that time there is a 30-40% risk of <32F/0C through Central Europe.