The Australia Bureau of Meteorology is projecting an intense negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (-IOD) to evolve during early winter and peak in intensity during quarter 3 of 2022. The -IOD pattern will sustain the La Nina-inspired persistent upper-level low-pressure trough pattern over Southeast Australia which has caused many excessive rainfall events.

Big years are agreed upon for North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. Interestingly, the North Atlantic is cooling steadily. The tropical North Atlantic index has dipped to -0.33C. Meanwhile the cool phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation continues. Eastward expansion of ocean heat wave NEP22A will need to shift toward the North America coast to end the -PDO regime which is very much in question right now.

The upper ocean heat pattern across the equatorial Pacific tells the story as a recent Kelvin Wave weakened La Nina. The Kelvin Wave influence is fading and resurgent cool waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific has regenerated and La Nina is now better-organized. We await the next Kelvin Wave as to whether La Nina fades (or not).

An unusually chilly air mass in that region is expected to develop and widen in the 6-10-day period according to GFS. The chill is strongest over Ukraine and just to the north in Western Russia. At that time minimum temperature risk dipping to <32F/0C is evident with several areas to 28F/-3C. In the 11-15-day period, GFS pushes the cold pattern westward across Europe. At that time there is a 30-40% risk of <32F/0C through Central Europe.