NOAA/CPC seasonal drought forecast maintains the long-term drought condition present across the western half of the U.S. Exceptions are in Arizona where the summertime wet monsoon features gully-washer rains that end drought. However, the Great Plains drought is forecast to expand westward into Iowa.

The latest Climate Impact Company month 1-3 ahead forecast is issued shortly. The accompanying high impact climate forecast indicates persistent excessive heat and a drought for much of the West and Central U.S. plus a hot/humid July in the Northeast States. Excessive rains are likely for the Mid-Atlantic to Ohio Valley region.

Soil moisture forecasts confidently present a problem for the Great Plains during summer 2022 as drought is clearly indicated. Already U.S. soil moisture has aerial coverage of D1, D2, D3 and D4 drought conditions similar to the 2012 historic drought.

The Australia Bureau of Meteorology is projecting an intense negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (-IOD) to evolve during early winter and peak in intensity during quarter 3 of 2022. The -IOD pattern will sustain the La Nina-inspired persistent upper-level low-pressure trough pattern over Southeast Australia which has caused many excessive rainfall events.