Suddenly, the equatorial East Pacific subsurface is warming and a strong MJO phase_8 is in the 2-week forecast, each a sign of La Nina's demise and increased risk of El Nino ahead. However, the required warming of the Northeast Pacific is in reverse...strong cooling! There are conflicting signals in the Pacific SSTA scheme right now regarding ENSO's future although La Nina demise is likely.

Climate models are increasingly agreeable of a 2023 ENSO transition from La Nina to El Nino. Model consensus suggests El Nino onset by late northern hemisphere meteorological spring and moderate El Nino by August with additional strengthening late in the year.

An active and intensifying transient equatorial Pacific MJO episode is likely to cause an expanding wet weather regime in South America by mid-March that includes parts of the Argentina summer 2022-23 drought area. Wet weather in Brazil may also expand.

Last week, Nino34 SSTA warmed to -0.3C which is neutral ENSO. Only the Nino4 region is at the La Nina threshold. The Nino3 SSTA warmed too exactly normal. The weekly observations maintain the trend of a slow decay of La Nina dating back to late last year.