The ever-changing ENSO...we now consider El Nino Modoki for 2019. El Nino Modoki analog years are 1986, 1991, 1994, 2002, 2004 and 2009. During El Nino Modoki in JUL/AUG/SEP the U.S. Corn Belt is drier and France to Southwest Russia is dry. Warm phase Pacific decadal oscillation to strengthen! Implies an expansive dry/hot western North America upper ridge pattern. The 11th positive phase Indian Ocean Dipole (since 1960) has formed which usually brings a dry winter/early spring climate to Australia. The North Atlantic cool pool will be stronger than the model forecast likely to keep New England cool this summer season and Western Europe wet. Tropical cyclones approaching the Gulf of Mexico States or Southeast U.S. intensify as they move over very warm waters later this summer.

The NOAA fire danger forecast for June through September certainly highlights the West Coast as a primary target. The Northwest is most reliably in a danger zone given evolving drought. California observed a wet spring therefore the fire danger may evolve more slowly there. The Southeast fire danger eases due to short-term rains.

Labrador Current is colder than normal bringing frequent fogs and chill weather to coastal New England while robust warm Gulf Stream contibutes to the warm surge across the Mid-Atl;antic and Southeast States.

The Madden Julian oscillation has frequently shifted across the equatorial East Pacific/Atlantic during the past 12 months making available tropical moisture to be entrained by the U.S. storm track to drive what has been the wettest 12 months in history. In May the MJO was very intense and the catalyst to the extraordinary severe weather pattern across the U.S.