Internationally, the emerging MJO stretched across Indonesia and backing into the eastern tropical Indian Ocean teh next 2 weeks supports dryness in South America and a wet climate in Australia backing into Southeast Asia with time. Southeast Asia is very dry and needs the rain. Argentina heat becomes impressive with the projected dryness.

The amount of rainfall to take the Australian drought out of the 10th driest percentile is a whopping 2 to 4 times normal across much of Eastern Australia.

A comparison betwen the constructed analog forecast produced by Climate Impact Company and the probabilistic climate forecast issued by NOAA/CPC for winter, spring and summer ahead.

Two climate alerts are issued. The positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole causing the Australian drought is beginning to ease increasing risk of returning beneficial rainfall late rthis summer season. A stratospheric warming event initiates in 10 days over Alaska and could cause an arctic outbreak in North America in early December.