The NAWH trough is extending eastward and will now produce another high impact weather regime across Western Europe…excessive rainfall! The GFS 15-day rainfall forecast indicates several in. of rain with high spots >5 in. for Western and Southern Europe for the second half of November. Farther downstream, a cold and snowy trough develops in Western Russia next week.

La Nina is moderate-to-strong enjoying a 3rd peak in intensity of the 2020-22 cold ENSO regime. However, dynamic and statistical ENSO phase forecast models are agreeable to La Nina ending in early 2023 coinciding with demise of negative Indian Ocean dipole (-IOD). However, the La Nina climate is unusually strong and could linger to the mid-point of 2023. El Nino remains a possibility for later 2023.

Will La Nina end during early 2023 as most dynamic/statistical models indicate? We’ve faced this question at the same time in 2021 and 2020. On each occasion, dynamic/statistical models were satisfied that the preceding La Nina would be compensated for by El Nino the following year. Instead, multivariate ENSO index maintained a strengthening La Nina climate.