Winter 2022-23 ranked 18th warmest on record. The entire East and most of the South U.S. were in the MUCH ABOVE normal category which included an all-time-record warm winter season in Massachusetts while 17 states were in the top 5 warmest all-time. The West U.S. was moderately chilly averaging in the top 1/3 all-time coldest winter seasons.

Suddenly, the equatorial East Pacific subsurface is warming and a strong MJO phase_8 is in the 2-week forecast, each a sign of La Nina's demise and increased risk of El Nino ahead. However, the required warming of the Northeast Pacific is in reverse...strong cooling! There are conflicting signals in the Pacific SSTA scheme right now regarding ENSO's future although La Nina demise is likely.

Climate models are increasingly agreeable of a 2023 ENSO transition from La Nina to El Nino. Model consensus suggests El Nino onset by late northern hemisphere meteorological spring and moderate El Nino by August with additional strengthening late in the year.

An active and intensifying transient equatorial Pacific MJO episode is likely to cause an expanding wet weather regime in South America by mid-March that includes parts of the Argentina summer 2022-23 drought area. Wet weather in Brazil may also expand.