The persistent upper-level low-pressure trough across East Australia so far in 2022 coupled with increased low atmospheric moisture caused by the warmer than normal oceans either side of Australia continue to fuel an excessive wet weather regime across East Australia.

The Climate Impact Company early April North Atlantic Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Forecast for 2022 indicates 19 tropical storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 intense hurricanes are expected. The forecast ranks in the top 10 most active seasons given the 1950-2021 climatology. The accumulative cyclone energy (ACE) index forecast is 135 which ranks the intensity forecast of the 2022 season at 20th most intense given the 1950-2021 climatology.

A major tornado outbreak for Mississippi/Alabama today accompanied by excessive rain with flash flood risk extending north to the southwest Tennessee Valley. Another severe weather/flooding event is indicated for early next week in the Mid-south States. Also, early next week an excessive hot weather events in in the forecast for California.

Late calendar winter was dry in East China wheat-growing areas raising concern regarding drought. However, due to presence of the Madden Julian oscillation in the far western Pacific during the past 10 days a wetter regime eased the dryness. New week 2-4 forecasts reveal the dryness returns!