After a relatively dry and cool spring in the Northeast U.S. Corridor, the weather pattern has changed dramatically. During July so far, the Northeast U.S. has shifted 1-3C warmer than normal while flooding rainfall events have emerged. The rainfall events are producing historical flooding in Vermont and widening toward central and southern New England today.

The risk of disruption to radio and satellite communications as well as power grids may increase if solar cycle 25 continues to over-achieve in intensity heading for maxima in 2025.

The expected onset of positive phase Indian ocean Dipole by JUL/AUG 2023 is delayed. The issue is the vertical motion in the tropical Indian/Pacific Ocean(s) is not well-correlated with an El Nino climate which would drive +IOD evolution. Until the El Nino climate pattern develops (AUG/SEP), +IOD will be delayed and the longer the delay the more likely +IOD is not as strong as currently forecast by most dynamic models.

Due to a delayed atmospheric El Nino and record warm North Atlantic, the North Atlantic basin seasonal forecast is revised. The updated forecast projects 20 tropical storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. Previously, only 3 seasons have produced 20 (or more) tropical cyclones. If 2023 observes 20 tropical cyclones, 3 of the past 4 years will have managed that achievement.