ECMWF indicates the low relative humidity in the low-to-middle troposphere across the central North Atlantic tropics inhibiting August tropical cyclone development eases very slowly in September and not until late month and early October is that pattern favorable for widespread tropical threats. A late peak of season this year!

Strong to sometimes historic drought has affected many key areas during JUN/JUL/AUG 2022 including China, Europe, the U.S. and South America. 15-day rainfall outlooks indicate more dryness for China, redeveloping dryness in South America, wiping out the Southern U.S. drought and some beneficial rains for parts of the Europe drought area.

As. September 1st approaches, the main development region for hurricanes in the outer tropical North Atlantic is marginally warmer than normal, the greatest warming trend is in the Caribbean Sea and the northeast Gulf of Mexico is steadily warming.

Unless the subsidence pattern stretched across the deep tropics of the North Atlantic basin reverses soon, the seasonal activity levels will likely be somewhat lower than outlooks issued late last spring and mid-summer. Due to seasonality, conditions should improve, and SEP/OCT looks like the busiest time of the 2022 North Atlantic tropical cyclone season (vs. AUG/SEP of most years). However, due to the late start of the season, the seasonal totals are likely less than the buoyant numbers associated with seasonal outlooks previously issued.