The last major summer drought in the U.S. was observed in 2012 when the Great Plains were hit hard! The soil moisture conditions during May 2012 were quite dry but not as dry as May 2022. Given a 3rd consecutive La Nina summer the U.S. is likely to encounter a historic drought.

The Gulf of Mexico has warmed to a basin average of +0.93C which is a whopping +0.99C change in the past 30 days. If this trend were to continue, over-achieving intensity of early season storms in the Gulf of Mexico are likely.

La Nina 2020-22 is most likely to hang on in 2022 and last into early 2023. La Nina should weaken but last into a third year for only the 5th time since 1950. Forecast confidence remains below average, but the trend is firmly toward lingering La Nina.

The April 2022 global soil moisture anomalies and 3-month trend reveal many important crop-area developments as the middle third of 2022 arrives. The Midwest to Mid-south U.S. trends wetter. The wet trend in this zone is typical of La Nina spring. Drought conditions remain profound across the western half of the U.S. and have intensified in the West/Southwest States. In Europe, dryness has intensified from France and Portugal eastward across Central Europe to Italy and further east into Ukraine.