The strongest annual positive phase of the North Atlantic oscillation on record has occurred in 2018. Most recently the +NAO regime has spawned well above normal Canadian snow cover and attendant cold. Evolving warm influence of a Pacific El Nino clashing with the northern latitude +NAO-inspired cold promises dramatic thermal changes and extremes into the U.S. as winter arrives.

A whopping 165% of normal accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) has been observed in 2018 through October 11 across the ocean basins of the northern hemisphere. The East Pacific is a leading contributor (247% of normal) plus an over-achieving North Atlantic basin (130% of normal). A leading contributor to the well above normal activity is a warmer than normal ocean.

There's no denying the immense warmth in the equatorial Pacific subsurface and (now) recent warming of the NINO SSTA regions. A fortified El Nino ahead adjustment is made to the Bureau of Meteorology/Australia forecast.

In September the super dry pattern of the 2018 warm season across Europe continued. Less than 50% of normal rainfall was observed across much of Southeast Europe, France and parts of north/northeast Europe plus Portugal into Spain and Italy. The climate pattern causing the drought initiated last spring and continues into autumn likely intensifying the next 2+ weeks.