Prohibitive West/South U.S. storm tack ahead with NOAA/CPC highlighting risks for Halloween to November 4th. The pattern will become persistent as the Super El Nino winter climate unfolds.

Snow cover is advancing, providing cold bias, and allowing arctic air to gather during the last third of October. Snow cover advance is notable in Quebec and Northeast/Interior East Asia. Above normal snow cover in these regions has increased significantly during recent days.

The NOAA/CPC Seasonal Drought Outlook indicates strengthening drought Interior Northwest while the 2026 severe drought extending from the Great Basin and Southwest U.S. to the Mid-south and Southeast States is (mostly) erased.

The Climate Impact Company Nino34 analog forecast through FEB-28 reveals current observations are exceeding the historically most intense (Nino34) signatures. El Nino 2026-27 will be record intense, peaking during DEC-26. El Nino intensity steadily decreases during Q1/2027 shifting to neutral phase by MAY-27. The outlook projects weak La Nina to follow mid-to-late 2027.