Last week NOAA announced an El Nino Advisory as onset of El Nino arrived. The Nino SSTA observations do not confirm that analysis. Using the daily NOAA global SSTA observations revealed is that warmth in the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean is obvious only near the Dateline (Nino4 region).

Near record soil moisture is observed across the Great Plains and East U.S. and is likely to continue through springtime.

The cold and snow in the West U.S. is becoming extreme. HDD projections indicate a colder February than 1989. A likely historic negative phase (for February) of the Pacific North America index is partially to blame.

The most dramatic soil moisture changes the past 3 months are wetter across the eastern half of the U.S., drier in Brazil and South Africa.