Short-term heat spike centered on Southwest Europe lingers this week followed by a cooler/wetter Northern Europe pattern next week and suppressed heat risk in the Southwest. However, anomalous heat regenerates and broadens during the middle third of the month.

The AI Graph Cast ECM ENS 15-day rainfall forecast is SCARY. The model locks extreme rain in the Gulf States and keeps the Midwest U.S. arid. Implied is an acceleration of the May drier North/wetter South pattern. Very warm to hot weather affecting much of the dry zone over the next 15 days helps to accelerate drying of soils.

The 2026 East Pacific basin tropical cyclone season is forecast above too much above normal activity. A large mass of unusually warm surface and subsurface water is present off the Southwest Coast of North America and coupled with a developing vigorous El Nino should provide an environment exceptionally supportive of many dangerous storms.

Combining GFS and ECM yields a heavy rain weather pattern evolving this week and extending into next week yielding 7+ inches of rain in East Texas to Southwest Arkansas and Northwest Louisiana. The forecast is made increasingly convincing by a potentially eastward shifting active Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) as forecast by GFS.