Beginning yesterday, forecast models indicated potential evolution of a tropical system east of New Jersey. Water temperatures support tropical development (81-82F). Additionally, a very hot 11-15-day forecast from recent days is suddenly cooler into the Midwest according to GFS and AIFS.

While Saharan Dust has suppressed tropical cyclone activity for much of July, the mid-troposphere is quite wet and supports a buoyant tropical cyclone season ahead once the Saharan Dust issue eases likely by the middle third of August.

The U.S. population weight CDD forecast explodes to well above normal August 2-8. The GFS is the hottest model, but all ensembles are trending hotter. Contributing to the increasing CDD during early August are hotter forecasts in the PJM-East sector.

Deep layer soil moisture deficits are generally the result of a long-term dry climate pattern. When long duration (7-10 days) hot and dry weather moves across these regions, quick evolving (flash) drought can generate. These conditions are possible in the southeast Great Plains including Eastern Kansas to Central Oklahoma during late JUL/early AUG.