08/30/2019, 5:13 am EDT

Slow Turning Dorian Over Florida Causes Widespread Extreme Rainfall Episode

Dorian may be a candidate for a similar extreme rainfall to Harvey (2017) and Florence (2018) as blocking high pressure systems either side of Dorian cause a slow turn over Florida that could take up to 3 days to execute. The NOAA/WPC 7-day rainfall forecast already indicates a large swath of 15-20 in. of rain for much of eastern Florida.
08/28/2019, 8:06 am EDT

Dorian Could Become A Major Hurricane Into Florida Early Next Week

Dorian may slow on approach to Puerto Rico today, lose some intensity tonight crossing the island then re-emerge north of Puerto Rico reaching hurricane strength in 2 days. Dorian turns more west-northwest due to steering guidance of a strengthening Bermuda High on the weekend. Tropical cyclone models indicate Dorian could become a major hurricane in the day 4 to 5 period while east of Florida.
08/26/2019, 2:11 pm EDT

Beneficial Rainfall Ahead for Southeast Brazil

The D1, D2 drought areas in southwest/southeast Brazil look to receive some beneficial rainfall during the medium-range period agreed upon by both the GFS and ECM. The wetter trend for these areas which desperately need the rain is a forecast change (from drier outlook late last week).
08/23/2019, 10:37 am EDT

North Atlantic Tropics Showing Signs of Life

Two potential tropical cyclones have emerged in the North Atlantic tropics. Tropical Disturbance 98L moves into Florida this weekend and may reorganize moving northeastward off the U.S. East Coast becoming a tropical storm Monday night or Tuesday. In the central North Atlantic tropics Tropical Disturbance 99L may become a tropical storm moving toward the Caribbean Sea early next week.