More heavy rain is on the way for East Australia! Currently, weather satellite view identifies an emerging storm centered on the central south coast of Australia. A cold front is focusing thunderstorms northward to central continent. This system is the latest in a series produced by a steady trail of potent upper troughs moving across Southern Australia. The transient heavy-rain-producing troughs continue the second half of October.

The prevailing view of most winter 2022-23 forecasts for the U.S. is a very La Nina-like South/East U.S. warmer-than-normal regime associated with dryness. A wet risk is enhanced in the Midwest States and possibly the Northwest U.S. In Europe, a milder-than-normal winter climate is indicated. Climate Impact Company disagrees. The CIC-CA forecast indicates a pattern much more conducive of cold weather risk.

During JUL/AUG/SEP 2022 large regions of wet soil moisture change outnumbered large areas of dry soil moisture change 12-8. The large region wet soil moisture changes from the past 3 months were most dramatic in India, interior northeastern Asia, Southeast Asia, and parts of North-central and east tropical Africa.

La Nina 2020-22 is likely to produce a 3rd peak in November followed by a steady demise in early 2023. Most analog and dynamic model forecasts agree with this scenario. Neutral ENSO evolves by FEB/MAR 2023 and El Nino may follow for the second half of 2023. If El Nino generates later in 2023, a much different climate pattern emerges. Included wet risk for the Southern U.S. and northern Argentina/southern Brazil and a dry climate for India, Southeast Asia, Indonesia, and Australia.