The Climate Impact Company 2023 North Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season forecast is updated. The outlook maintains 7 hurricanes and 3 intense hurricanes while raising the number of tropical cyclones slightly from 12 to 13. However, a major increase in accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index from 92 to 136 is indicated.

During May 2023 U.S. wind power generation was below normal on both zonal and meridional directional scales. Wind power generation areas across the Upper Midwest/Midwest U.S. and southwest Great Plains/Western Texas were each affected by the lighter than normal wind speed regimes. The macro-scale driver of the lighter wind speeds was an El Nino-like climate as defined by a vigorous negative phase of the southern oscillation index.

NOAA issued their 2023 seasonal hurricane forecast yesterday (12-17 storms, 5-9 hurricanes, and 1-4 major hurricanes) which was slightly higher than the consensus of seasonal forecasts issued by Colorado State University, Tropical Storm Risk U.K., and Climate Impact Company. Meanwhile an area of possible development has developed off the Southeast Coast for the early weekend.

So far, May 2023 has produced below normal zonal and meridional wind speeds across the U.S. particularly across most of the SPP and ERCOT regions of the Central U.S. Causal to the lack of wind is a large area of high pressure over Western Canada extending to the Great Plains and generally weak low pressure in the far southern States to the East Coast.