Based on the ECMWF guidance, Climate Impact Company projects another half-dozen tropical cyclone events in October biased toward the Western Caribbean Sea to the Bahamas. An additional 2 or 3 hurricanes is anticipated.

Madden Julian oscillation shifts to phase_4/phase_5 and strengthens over the next 2 weeks according to ECMWF. The convection pattern in the tropics of the West Pacific suggests this pattern has already developed. An increase in West Pacific tropical cyclone activity and above normal rainfall stretching from Southeast Asia to Australia is likely. Conversely, the subsidence phase of MJO shifts across South America.

ECM "weeklies" have been helpful identifying periods of anomalous rainfall in the deep tropics/subtropics implying presence of tropical cyclone activity. The model is persistent at producing that risk for the west-central/central North Atlantic tropics/subtropics through October.

A review of Tropical Disturbance 98L and expectations that this system will intensify and drift into the Gulf of Mexico next week while possibly reaching major hurricane intensity.