A chilly outbreak remains in the 11-15-day forecast across Argentina into Southwest Brazil as meteorological winter 2025 arrives. There is marginal <32F/<0C risk in northeast Argentina with the season's first cool burst. The intensity of this potential event may be a guide on additional cold risk as wintertime arrives in South America.

Unusually cool weather across the East U.S. the last third of May but warmer changes in June are forecast by ECMWF including robust anomalous warmth for most of the U.S. by week-4 (June 8-14). A tendency for wet weather in the northwest Gulf region is likely to continue in June.

Large differences are regions of wet vs. dry soil across the Central and East U.S. are evident in the daily soil moisture anomaly analysis. The rainfall pattern is changeable and features significant events as organized drought risk heading toward meteorological summer is not weel-organized (except in the Southwest). The Southeast Europe to Southwest Russia drought receives relief from a showery pattern the next 2 weeks.

Subsidence on the back side of an East Coast trough causes the onset of an excessive hot weather pattern across Texas on Tuesday. The hottest day of an extended heatwave is Wednesday when southwest flow extending across Texas from the hot air source region across the Mexico drought area occurs. Widespread 100’s are likely on Wednesday. The hot southwest flow peaks Wednesday although likely remaining through the 10-day heat wave.