The South America 7-day percent of normal rainfall observations reveal a much drier trend across Argentina while patchy heavy rain areas are developing in Brazil. The 15-day percent of normal rainfall forecast across South America by ECM ENS stays wet in Brazil.

The Climate Impact Company (CIC) 2024 North Atlantic basin tropical cyclone (TC) season forecast projects 20 tropical storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes. The accumulative cyclone energy (ACE) index forecast is 187. The activity forecast is somewhat higher than normal.

Climate Impact Company has renewed seasonal North Atlantic tropical cyclone climatology for 1950-2023 for both El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) and tropical North Atlantic (TNA) index phase and intensity. The climatology is based on ENSO and TNA index for AUG/SEP/OCT of each year.

Most instructive regarding ENSO is the current upper ocean heat analysis and comparison with one month ago. Note that the most recent analysis yields a sharp cool (blue) anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific off the northwest coast of South America. Westward toward the Dateline, an area of shallow anomalous warmth lingers able to sustain El Nino. Note the one-month trend is steadily cooler favoring weakening of El Nino and increasing risk of following La Nina.