After two years of a generally wetter than normal climate across Australia there are signs of dry and hot weather ahead. Forecast models are very dry and turn quite hot across north and west portions of Australia over the next 2 weeks.

In 2022 the Pacific decadal oscillation is favored to stay in the cool phase although weaker while the warm North Atlantic basin (including the tropics) indicates presence of the warm phase Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation and tropical North Atlantic index. The -PDO/+AMO combination supports drought expansion during the warm season for the U.S. Additionally, the warm North Atlantic favors stronger hurricanes.

The Effective Drought Demand Index (EDDI) identifies an extremely thirsty atmosphere across the Great Plains to parts of the Midwest U.S. in early February. A drought condition could emerge quickly in these regions (unless already developed) if significant precipitation fails to occur.

The convective phase of the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) is forecast to strengthen in the same position over the next 2 weeks possibly lingering into March. To compensate for this vast region of convection, the downstream effect is an area of subsidence extending across South America. The influence on climate is profound. The immediate important influences include an expansive very heavy rainfall pattern over Southeast Asia, the eastern Indian Ocean and Indonesia while the influence on South America is to make the climate drier.