A wet spring is ahead for Brazil which is much-needed rainfall given the drought condition. One catalyst to the wet climate pattern is the strong negative phase of the Atlantic Meridional Mode.

California and the rest of the West Coast plus Nevada observed their hottest July on record. Meanwhile, New York and Massachusetts observed their wettest July on record. Overall, the U.S. ranked 6th wettest and 13th warmest given the 127 year climatology in July.

During the past 10 days the upper ocean heat in the equatorial North Atlantic has diminished rapidly and is already approaching the cool (subsurface) peak last November when La Nina 2020-21 peaked.

All primary seasonal forecasts for the North Atlantic tropics are updated. The seasonal forecasts indicated include the activity observed so far. The Climate Impact Company added 1 major hurricane and increased the ACE index. However, both Colorado State University and Tropical Storm Risk U.K. lowered their forecast from previous and are each now very close to Climate Impact Company. The NOAA/NHC forecast increased.