Dynamic ENSO phase forecast models are indicating a full-tilt El Nino by August 2023. Implied is a tropical cyclone season in the North Atlantic basin possibly similar to the last full-throttle El Nino that suppressed North Atlantic activity. Below normal rainfall was observed during JUL/AUG/SEV 2015 across the Southern U.S., Gulf of Mexico, and western North Atlantic tropics.

Since late January, the Pacific North America (PNA) index has shifted to a (mostly) steady negative phase. A brief positive phase is with us now, but strengthening negative phase returns in the latest 15-day forecast. The -PNA pattern occurs when an upper-level troughing in the jet stream pattern occurs just off the North America West Coast. The persistence of the -PNA pattern has caused the Northeast Pacific to cool, the Northeast Pacific marine heat wave (MHW) to shift westward and reinvigorate the cool phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation (-PDO).

The Europe Drought Observatory identifies strengthening drought across parts of Western Europe. Drought is also intensifying in Turkey. The latest week 2-4 outlook indicates some patchy beneficial rain but not enough to turn around dry soil conditions.

The daily southern oscillation index (SOI) is -1.2 which is exceptionally negative especially when compared to the dominant La Nina-like positive phase of the past one year. The shift to negative phase is due to the passage of the convection phase of the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) through the equatorial East Pacific and onto the Atlantic basin. The MJO strength is exceptional and one of the strongest signatures in recent years.