06/17/2022, 1:37 pm EDT

The U.S. June 20-24 Heatwave from ERCOT to SERC

Using today's 12Z GFS identifies an immense heatwave forecast for Texas to the Southeast U.S. next week. Temperatures trend a little hotter each day with historical records most likely to strike Houston and Atlanta. Readings in the 103-106F range are likely for each location with heat index reaching 115F.
06/16/2022, 4:03 pm EDT

Long-term -PDO/+AMO Validate Southwest U.S./Texas Drought; Now Adding the Midwest States During Summer 2022

Frequently referred to research identifying PDO/AMO regimes combined influence on U.S. drought risk was published by McCabe, Palecki and Betancourt in 2004. The influence of long-term -PDO/+AMO regimes on U.S. drought risk is elevated for the Southwest and West-central U.S. plus Texas and also the Midwest States. The Southwest U.S. to Texas drought is already locked-in while the Midwest U.S. has avoided drought so far. But that will change during mid-to-late summer!
06/13/2022, 12:52 pm EDT

Mid-June North Atlantic SSTA Pattern is Marginally Warm

The Gulf of Mexico basin average is a balmy 83.2F which is slightly (+0.18F) warmer than normal and moderately cooler (-0.45F) during the past 30 days. The North Atlantic SST threshold for tropical cyclones is 81F/27C which generally covers the entire Gulf except slightly cooler temperatures off the Yucatan Peninsula and the Mexico Coast.