The NOAA risk of heat-related impacts forecast returns today. Climate Impact Company will use the most important potential hot weather days in daily reports. Today, highlighted are 3 days of important heat. The first is tomorrow when unusual moderate heat risk affects the Upper Midwest. The “unusual” moderate heat risk shifts across the Ohio Valley midweek and through the Northeast Corridor on Thursday. Low 90’s can occur in this zone. The highest heat risk (relative to normal) this week is on Saturday and targets the San Antonio to Houston area.

The Madden Julian oscillation 14-day forecast settles on phase_7/phase_8 during the medium range with increasing intensity justifying a cooler and wetter East U.S. forecast. The ECM ENS 15-day percent of normal rainfall outlook indicates wet weather, possibly heavy rain in the southern Great Plains with the wet regime expanding to the Tennessee Valley and southern Ohio Valley.

Over the weekend, GFS indicated potential for an emerging chilly trough across Northwest Eurasia in the 11-15-day period. Last night, ECM joined forces with GFS as forecast confidence increases dramatically. The negative phase of the Scandinavia Index supports the presence of the projected Northwest Eurasia trough by the operational models.

An upper trough located in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico spawning a massive amount of rain across the Gulf of Mexico affecting the coastal region. A careful watch late in the period for any subtropical/tropical low-pressure development.