October was wet across much of the Black Sea region eroding drought conditions. However, the weather pattern changes as November approaches. Forecast models indicate a very dry pattern through the first half of November in the Black Sea AG regions. Lack of snow cover across Northwest/North Eurasia biases the climate pattern warm. Snow cover continues to reach far southward in Northeast Asia.

A review of the OCT-25 precipitation climate across South America so far reveals a drier than normal regime across Central to Southeast Brazil which justifies ongoing below normal soil moisture observations from NOAA. Argentina has been mixed yielding mostly normal to wetter than normal soil conditions. A wetter Brazil forecast is indicated, initially associated with the ongoing negative Antarctic oscillation, and continuing later in November due to a wet monsoon.

October is surprisingly dry across much of Australia especially in the East. Wet weather is confined to the northwest to south-central coast of the continent. Anomalous heat has dominated October with impressive anomalous daytime heat across East Australia. The East Australia heatwave fades due to sudden heavy rains to finish October.

RI (rapid intensification) is defined as a tropical cyclone gaining more than 35 mph in top wind speed within 24 hours. On the weekend, an upper-level high pressure builds east-northeast of Melissa forcing a discernable northwest steering current. During this time, upper-level shear eases. As Melissa moves northwest in an improving environment, the storm is better able to intensify rapidly moving across 30-31C surface water and the 3rd warmest upper ocean heat content on record for the Caribbean Sea.