At risk of several to 10+ in. of rain is anywhere from northeast Texas to the Ohio and Tennessee Valley(s) based on a consensus of the 15-day rainfall forecast by GFS, ECM and CMC. The severe weather threat zone will be Texas and the Missouri Valley.

The most remarkable soil moisture regimes are the persistent and historic wet soil moisture regimes across eastern tropical Africa and India. The wet soils in this area are the result of the positive Indian Ocean Dipole which peaked in intensity last October. Warm SSTA across the tropical Indian Ocean may try to sustain this wet pattern despite the collapse of the +IOD.

During well-established La Nina events (such as 2007-09 and 2010-12) the PMM is steadily negative. Forecast models are indicating La Nina risk for later in 2020.

The January/February 2020 arctic oscillation (AO) averaged +2.9 (second strongest on record) with the February AO index (+3.417) the strongest on record (for February). Identified by the vigorous +AO regime is an intense polar vortex anchored near the North Pole and strengthening the thermal ribbon in the upper atmosphere between very cold upper air in the polar region and warmer regime in the subtropics.