10/05/2021, 2:57 pm EDT

Sunspot Activity Running Well Above Forecast in October 2021

The sunspot number for early October is around 50 which is well above the projected value based on the Sep. 10, 2021 forecast by NASA. In fact, the observation is above the 95th percentile forecast. Conservative forecasts for solar cycle 25 project a similar sunspot number at solar maxima in 2024-25 to the past solar peak occurring twice in 2011-12 and 2013-14. However, based on early trends, solar maximum for 2024-25 could be much stronger.
10/03/2021, 11:54 am EDT

Record Warm Central into East U.S. October 2021?

The October 2021 temperature anomaly outlook is ferocious warm Central and into the East. The GFS ENS is super warm east of the Continental Divide for most of the next 15 days and the remainder of October is likely to feature very little change. The West will cool-down and impressively so during the medium-range. However, the eastern 2/3 of the U.S. may receive a record warm mid-autumn.
09/23/2021, 10:24 am EDT

Northern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone ACE Index 75% Of Normal

The 2021 northern hemisphere accumulated cyclone energy index (ACE) is about 75% of normal so far in 2021. Only the North Atlantic basin ACE index is above normal at 79.2 (29% above normal). Interestingly (and rare), both the northeast and northwest Pacific basins have observed below normal ACE index for the tropical cyclone season so far in 2021.