05/13/2020, 10:43 am EDT

Possible Early Season Tropical Cyclone Next Week

An area of shower activity across Cuba is forecast to slowly expand and gain intensity the next few days. By the weekend a low pressure area forms in the western Bahamas and drifts slowly northward. There is a 35% chance that the system is sufficiently organized to transition into a minimal tropical storm (Arthur) early next week while continuing a northeastward drift eventually accelerating out to sea.
05/11/2020, 12:24 pm EDT

Subsurface East Pacific Cools Dramatically: La Nina Is On the Way!

A leading indicator of ENSO phase change is a sudden change in the equatorial East Pacific subsurface temperature anomaly analysis. The latest analysis by NOAA/CPC indicates a DRAMATIC late April/early May cooling east of the Dateline. The risk of La Nina developing in AUG/SEP/OCT 2020 as indicated by several forecast models is well-supported by this cooler subsurface Pacific diagnostic.
05/10/2020, 9:48 am EDT

Weak La Nina Likely During Tropical Cyclone Season

The steady loss of heat in the subsurface equatorial Pacific Ocean east of the Dateline is an indicator that some forecast models that indicate La Nina for later this summer are on target! A weak La Nina substantially increases hurricane risk in the North Atlantic,
05/06/2020, 10:38 am EDT

Global Soil Moisture Regime At The End of April 2020: Very wet!

Despite the large amount of wet soil regions there are some important drought areas. The strongest dry area emerging is across southwest Brazil’s second corn crop and extending across the Parana River basin. This zone trended much drier the past 2-3 months. A second key drought area is across the south and southwest Russia wheat belt extending to Romania also trending drier through early 2020 (but receiving rainfall in early May).