A mild El Nino winter is ahead. Climate forecasts consistently indicate mild Pacific influence across Canada and the Northern U.S. while an energetic storm track stretches across the Southern U.S. However, of note is the likely increased risk of sudden stratospheric warming events caused by more frequent and powerful solar flares associated with the onset of solar maxima. SSW's cause emergence of arctic air outbreaks!

While extreme heat shifts northward, another major issue is potential for excessive flooding rainfall across the Interior West and Southwest U.S. including California. An upper trough entraining a tropical cyclone early in the 6-10-day period causes a long duration period of wet weather covering much of the West. Flash flood risk is highest in Southern California, the Southwest Desert, and the Great Basin!

Possibly due to seasonality, a transition toward a climate pattern with greater influence from the tropics, the far Southern U.S. including the Gulf States and particularly Texas are forecast to lose their tendency for extreme heat or produce a choppy not pattern as indicated with the SERC 15-day outlook.

While oceanic El Nino onset was announced by NOAA in June, the atmosphere is lagging with a lingering memory of the 2020-23 lengthy La Nina keeping atmospheric ENSO in neutral phase.