ERCOT Heat to Become Less Intense: PJM-West Heat Spike Possible

Fig. 1: ERCOT SYSTEM daily temperature average using all models through 15 days.

Fig. 2: SERC SYSTEM daily temperature average using all models through 15 days.

Discussion: Possibly due to seasonality, a transition toward a climate pattern with greater influence from the tropics, the far Southern U.S. including the Gulf States and particularly Texas (Fig. 1) are forecast to lose their tendency for extreme heat or produce a choppy not pattern as indicated with the SERC 15-day outlook (Fig. 2). As a result, there may be an increase in heat risk farther northward as projected for PJM-WEST (Fig. 3).

Fig. 3: PJM-WEST SYSTEM daily temperature average using all models through 15 days.