03/01/2023, 7:50 am EST

Developing JUN/JUL/AUG 2023 El Nino climate; U.S./Europe Expectations

Climate models are increasingly agreeable of a 2023 ENSO transition from La Nina to El Nino. Model consensus suggests El Nino onset by late northern hemisphere meteorological spring and moderate El Nino by August with additional strengthening late in the year.
02/28/2023, 8:42 am EST

MJO-Driven Wet Weather Ahead for Argentina by mid-March

An active and intensifying transient equatorial Pacific MJO episode is likely to cause an expanding wet weather regime in South America by mid-March that includes parts of the Argentina summer 2022-23 drought area. Wet weather in Brazil may also expand.
02/27/2023, 8:37 pm EST

Oceanic La Nina Fades to Neutral Phase

Last week, Nino34 SSTA warmed to -0.3C which is neutral ENSO. Only the Nino4 region is at the La Nina threshold. The Nino3 SSTA warmed too exactly normal. The weekly observations maintain the trend of a slow decay of La Nina dating back to late last year.
02/23/2023, 5:09 pm EST

MJO Shift Drives Colder U.S. Pattern in March

ECMWF 30-day MJO forecast indicates and intense signature shifting through the eastern equatorial Pacific and into the tropical Atlantic during March. Normally, during early meteorological spring, MJO shifting into this region with intensity produces a cold U.S. upper trough pattern as indicated by ECMWF "Weeklies".