El Nino 2023-24 roars on but signs of weakening ahead have emerged. Cooling subsurface waters in the West Pacific have shifted east of the Dateline during January. Warm waters just beneath the surface of the equatorial Pacific to sustain El Nino remain, but the emerging cool waters are likely to expand and weaken/dissipate Pacific surface warming over the next several months. Expect neutral ENSO during Q2/2024 and La Nina by Q3/2024.

The second burst of arctic air projected for late this week in the U.S. is trending colder. The U.S. gas weighted HDD forecast indicates a second peak for the January 2024 cold episode occurring on Saturday. The second cold peak is just short of the amplitude of yesterday’s peak cold.

The polar front has stalled on the Texas Coast with an area of low pressure forming off the South Texas Coast. A mild marine easterly flow off the Gulf is induced and slows the southward progress of the arctic front. Consequently, a large area of freezing rain causing an ice accretion is likely in central and eastern Texas shifting into Louisiana for later today and through tonight.

"Bomb cyclones" and following frigid arctic air warrant a winter storm name "Gerri". A trail of El Nino storms producing near or less than 980 MB low pressure systems continues. The latest super storm is over the eastern Great Lakes with attendant storminess producing more flooding rains with high wind in the Northeast States while blizzard conditions from the Midwest to the Great Lakes persist. Wind chill warnings are posted by NOAA for the Great Plains as a following arctic air mass is poised to release into the U.S.