08/01/2023, 10:34 am EDT

The El Nino Ridge Warms Mid-winter in South America.

A warm mid-winter pattern across South America this year thanks to an amplified upper-level ridge centered just-off the North Coast of Chile and inspired by aggressive anomalous warmth of the northeast South Pacific Ocean off the South America Coast and vigorous El Nino warming of the eastern tropical Pacific.
07/31/2023, 1:47 pm EDT

El Nino Strengthening, Northern Oceans Are Very Warm!

The Nino34 SSTA warmed to +1.2C last week as oceanic El Nino strengthens to moderate intensity. The ENSO climate budged toward El Nino in July as supported by a 2-to-3-week period of a negative southern oscillation index (-SOI) although SOI has shifted into weak positive phase the past 2 days.
07/30/2023, 12:51 pm EDT

Cool Northern U.S. Pattern Change But Will It Last?

In 10-15 days, possible changes are looming. The global atmospheric angular momentum (GLAAM) pattern may flip negative for the first time during the summer season signaling a slowdown in the upper air pattern. If so, recent much warmer GFS 11-15-day forecasts and the ECM 16-20/16-30-day forecasts may regenerate another fierce hot upper ridge pattern for mid-to-late August.