In South America, rainfall forecasts have shifted wet risk to Brazil during the past 1-2 weeks. The 7-day percent of normal observed rainfall identifies wetter Brazil weather while rains linger in Argentina. Low pressure areas spawn heavy rain the next 1-2 days Paraguay into Brazil and Northeast Argentina late this week. Additional heavy rain is projected in the 6-10-day and 11-15-day period centered east of Paraguay.

An upper trough on the Southeast Brazil Coast as projected by climate forecasts for early calendar summer is not there. Instead, weak low pressure across Central Brazil fuels wetter than normal conditions for Central Brazil while East Brazil is trending drier. Argentina is drier and hotter than normal.

The week 2-4 outlook for Europe emphasizes a Southwest Europe and North Africa storm track with North Atlantic mild marine air flooding Europe (and Western Russia) preventing snow cover from forming to inspire cold air masses.

Building convection centered over the eastern tropical Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent initiated in early November, strengthened mid-November, and reached peak intensity during late November. During peak intensity, 2 unusually late season tropical cyclones formed including Senyar striking Western Indonesia and Ditmar moving into Southern India. Extreme rains caused historic flooding and mudslides killing 100’s in Western Indonesia with similar damage and fatalities confined to Southern India.