Heavy rain along a low-pressure trough stretches through East Australia today. The wet pattern has no end in sight as a supporting upper-level low-pressure area coupled with the surface trough persists the remainder of November. Forecast models are in good agreement on a widespread 2-6-inch rainfall for Eastern Australia through the next 15 days.

A review of the just-issued NOAA/CPC long-lead probabilistic climate forecast for DEC-23 and DEC/JAN/FEB 2023-24 with the anomaly projections from Climate Impact Company plus initial insight into the summer 2024 forecast. NOAA and CIC are similarly warm in the East for winter 2023-24 while CIC is colder West. Both forecasts agree on a vigorous (mostly) Southern U.S. storm track.

Last week widespread wet weather was observed across Australia. The wet weather is a surprise given the dry climate usually produced by El Nino and certainly evident in October. Latest week 2-4 forecast for Australia maintains the wetter than normal regime into December.

Most evident in the 6-10-day period, the subtropical ridge delivering a hot and mostly dry 1-5-day forecast splits in the 6-10-day period to allow tropical moisture to shift across Central Brazil in a forecast change. In the 11-15-day period, Central Brazil trends wetter for the same reason.