A surge of strong west to southwest wind extends to the Smokehouse Creek fire zone peaking tomorrow afternoon with sustained west to southwest wind near 30 mph on the western edge of the fire zone. In this scenario, expansion of the fires eastward into Oklahoma is expected. On Sunday, wind speeds ease slightly while the wind direction is southwest. Tuesday night, wind shifts to north-northeast at 10-20 mph. The 12Z GFS indicates little or no rain during the latest 15-day outlook across Northern Texas.

The Smokehouse Creek fire continues to expand and intensify primarily located in northern Texas but now reaching into Oklahoma. High wind is generated by the fire enhanced by synoptic scale wind this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon averaging 20-25 mph with gusts to 40 mph from the south today and west tomorrow.

The tropical Indian Ocean SSTA have shifted very warm. The 2023 +IOD pattern has ended. Although West Indian Ocean SSTA is still quite warm (+0.85C), the east-southeast tropics are now extremely warm (+1.38C). Indicated is a weak -IOD signature which may help to explain the unexpected wet bias to Australia climate, give the El Nino pattern.

The Indian Ocean tropical waters are very warm compared to normal. Recently, the eastern Indian ocean tropics have warmed significantly and are now warmer than the western Indian Ocean tropics. Analogs show a similar regime following mature El Nino phase during February 1998, 2010, and 2016. What followed during MAR/APR/MAY was a precipitation climate reminiscent of negative Indian Ocean dipole.