11/25/2022, 8:27 am EST

MJO Rolls Across Pacific Toward Atlantic To Ignite Mid-south/Brazil Heavy Rains

Forecast models reveal presence of MJO convection concentrated near the Dateline through the weekend surging eastward toward and into the equatorial Atlantic in early December. The influence on climate is heavy rainfall across the Mid-south (and vicinity) in the 10-day U.S. precipitation outlook, enhanced rains across Brazil, and a rare drying trend in Australia.
11/22/2022, 8:17 am EST

Marine Heat Waves Dominate Australia/South America Climate Pattern

Getting the most (research) attention regarding a new phenomenon referred to as marine heat waves (MHW) is typically the Northeast Pacific MHW and more recently in research published in Journal of Climate, the East Asia/West Pacific MHW. However, the southern hemisphere has certainly acquired large areas of surface/subsurface water much warmer than normal and well-correlated to upper atmosphere pressure patterns somewhat stagnant in character leading to long lasting climate regimes featuring both very wet and dry-to-drought regimes.
11/20/2022, 12:32 pm EST

Evolving Arctic Air Mass is Possible in Russia

The mega-cluster ensemble indicates an area of cold weather in Russia may strengthen and intensify over the next 15 days driven in-part by above normal snow cover which recently reached Eastern Europe.
11/17/2022, 8:54 am EST

Hot/dry Summer Argentina; Most (Not All) of Brazil Avoids Drought

The Climate Impact Company constructed analog (CIC-CA) climate forecast for South America during meteorological summer 2022-23 indicates persistent anomalous heat and dryness in Argentina where flash drought is quite possible. The dryness extends to Southeast Brazil although less consistent. Far Southeast Brazil has a drought risk for summer 2022-23. The remainder of Brazil Crop Areas is normally wet with diminished drought risk.