The prevailing view of most winter 2022-23 forecasts for the U.S. is a very La Nina-like South/East U.S. warmer-than-normal regime associated with dryness. A wet risk is enhanced in the Midwest States and possibly the Northwest U.S. In Europe, a milder-than-normal winter climate is indicated. Climate Impact Company disagrees. The CIC-CA forecast indicates a pattern much more conducive of cold weather risk.

During JUL/AUG/SEP 2022 large regions of wet soil moisture change outnumbered large areas of dry soil moisture change 12-8. The large region wet soil moisture changes from the past 3 months were most dramatic in India, interior northeastern Asia, Southeast Asia, and parts of North-central and east tropical Africa.

La Nina 2020-22 is likely to produce a 3rd peak in November followed by a steady demise in early 2023. Most analog and dynamic model forecasts agree with this scenario. Neutral ENSO evolves by FEB/MAR 2023 and El Nino may follow for the second half of 2023. If El Nino generates later in 2023, a much different climate pattern emerges. Included wet risk for the Southern U.S. and northern Argentina/southern Brazil and a dry climate for India, Southeast Asia, Indonesia, and Australia.

Slowly, the European Drought is easing. During the late warm season areas of beneficial rainfall have developed. More recently, rainfall occurred in the proper area to cause water levels of the Rhine River to increase dramatically and out of critically low levels.