The number of drier soil moisture regions outweighed the wetter regimes by 14 to 8 in August 2020. In North America a drier trend became established over the Southwest U.S. centered on the 4-Corners region. The Ohio Valley also trended drier. Canadian dryness extended to New England although drought in Western Canada eased.

An Excessive Heat Warning is issued for the southern half of California and an upgrade from a watch to a warning for the northern half of California is due by tomorrow. Excessive heat warnings are the highest state of alert for the California electricity markets. The projected population weight CDD for Sep. 4-10 for the Pacific region is 104 which is slightly higher than the 102 observed Aug. 14-20.

Negative phase Indian Ocean Dipole is forecast to develop the next 1-3 months. Coupled with La Nina a wet Australia climate ahead is likely. 2010 and 1998 were -IOD years with La Nina present during quarter 4. The result was a very wet climate across northern and eastern Australia.

Research (Greg McCabe, Julie Betancourt and Michael Palecki) has shown that the -PDO/+AMO regime has a tendency to increase drought risk across the Southwest and Midwest U.S. during the warm season. The current U.S. soil moisture regime certainly recognizes the -PDO/+AMO influence on late summer soil moisture.