El Nino may weaken by July according to yesterday's Bureau of Meteorology/Australia forecast. Modern-day analogs indicate much of the U.S. is warmer than normal during JUL/AUG/SEP when this ENSO condition occurs. Interestingly, the Corn Belt tends to be dry.

The European Drought Observatory identifies widening dry soils across Southern Europe. However, forecast models indicate beneficial rains developing across this region into early May.

Over-the-weekend severe weather produced 609 damage reports Sunday and 259 damage reports Saturday (a total of 868). The next event sets-up tomorrow in Texas to Missouri shifting into the Southeast Thursday.

The Great Flood on 2019 continues to maintain soaking wet fields in the Midwest U.S. while soil moisture across Southern Canada remains limited still awaiting snowmelt in some areas. Parts of the Brazil drought zone have eroded while in Europe dryness is stronger France to Spain. The Australian drought has improved while Southeast Asia to Western Indonesia drought worsens.