Global DEC/JAN/FEB 2019-20 SSTA Forecast And Climate Influencers

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Global DEC/JAN/FEB 2019-20 SSTA Forecast/Predictors

Fig. 1: The NMME global SSTA forecast valid DEC/JAN/FEB 2019-20.

Discussion: The North American Multi-Ensemble (NMME) model global sea surface temperature (SSTA) anomaly forecast for DEC/JAN/FEB 2019-20 identifies regions of climate influencers. The ENSO regime is neutral. There is no El Nino or La Nina for 2-4 months from now. The positive Indian Ocean Dipole persists although with less intensity and maintains Australian drought. The North Atlantic Warm Hole (NAWH) continues for the northern hemisphere winter, correlates to an upper trough in that location and downstream upper ridge pattern southern Europe. This pattern may also inspire a cold trough over Western Russia. The Norwegian Sea is cooler than normal correlating to below average risk of high latitude high pressure blocking. Cold air masses flowing off the Asia Coast and North America East Coast into warm SSTA patterns implies significant coastal storms affecting Japan and the coastal U.S. Northeast Corridor.