Australia Bureau of Meteorology ended La Nina 2020-21 today. SSTA in the equatorial East Pacific remains marginally cool however upper ocean heat to support La Nina’s survival is disappearing fast. The Australia Bureau of Meteorology ENSO forecast indicates neutral ENSO ahead for the middle third of 2021.

The Loop Current is unusually active in the Gulf of Mexico SSTA pattern right now causing an area of very warm water to gather just-off the southeast coast of Louisiana where the current undergoes the east turn. The pool of very warm water has caused the low-level atmosphere in this region to become unusually moist.

Suddenly, the subsurface equatorial Pacific Ocean is warming rapidly as a Kelvin Wave emerges and is shifting east. Implied is a more certain dissipation of La Nina ahead. If another Kelvin Wave were to follow during Q2 of 2021 an El Nino risk emerges.

The flash drought/excessive heat regime observed in July 2012 was centered on the central Great Plains with attendant heat spread across most of the U.S. Nebraska, Iowa and Illinois observed all-time top-5 driest mid-summer months on record. The drought condition came on fast most likely due to developing high-pressure aloft across a vast area of deep layer soil moisture deficit. Despite the wet soils in parts of the Great Plains a dry Q2 of 2021 climate is forecast and 2012 is a summer 2021 analog forecast year.