In the Q4/2022 outlook, NOAA and CIC are agreeable on the temperature outlook which is broadly warmer than normal across most of the U.S. The precipitation outlook is agreeable on dryness across the South U.S. However, CIC is drier on each coast and wetter in the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region.

Pattern change emerges across Europe with significant rain on the front end likely helping low river levels particularly the Rhine River. Much cooler weather follows the rain for the medium-range with slight risk of <32F/0C in Eastern Europe.

Summer 2022 was hot – again! Summer of 2022 ranked 3rd hottest of 128 years of climatology. Last year ranked the hottest summer on record. Summer of 2020 was 4th hottest on record. One commonality with each summer of the past 3 years is the presence of a La Nina climate.

The Climate Impact Company soil moisture outlook through the end of 2022 indicates emerging important dryness for the Southeast U.S., East Africa and Argentina to Southeast Brazil while China drought continues.