Forecast models have over-forecast rainfall across the dry-to-drought portion of Brazil consistently the past 30 days for both short-range and medium-range timescales. Forecast models have a tendency to turn northwestern South America wet with a fetch of that moisture across Brazil (at times). Instead the northwest South America dry pattern (and drought) persists and central/south Brazil rains are failing.

Last week the Nino SSTA regions warmed significantly and La Nina lost intensity. In the eastern equatorial subsurface robust cool water supply diminished indicating fuel to sustain La Nina is less plentiful.

La Nina 2020-21 appears projected to be almost as strong as the 2007-08 episode ranking the event 3rd strongest of this century so far. The Climate Impact Company analog projection is based on 3 cold ENSO events from the past 25 years and the consensus projects peak intensity in January, weakening La Nina next spring, neutral ENSO next summer and possible return to weak La Nina DEC/JAN/FEB 2021-22.

Leading drought areas across the globe as of November 1 is the Western U.S. which inspired a record-setting fire season, one of the driest/drought periods on record for Paraguay and a harsh drought across Southwest Russia and the Black Sea region.