At 5AM EDT, Category-3 Major Hurricane Helene was located at 27.9N/84.6W or about 130 miles west of Tampa and 175 miles south of Tallahassee. The maximum sustained wind is 125 mph, and Helene is accelerating to 23 mph toward the north-northeast. Central pressure is 951 MB. Helene is developing rapidly while accelerating. An exceptionally violent storm.

Reviewing the 1993-2024 monthly IOD index, positive phase spikes are usually followed by the negative phase. A sharp +IOD was observed in 2023 fading earlier this year. Anticipated (earlier this year) was generation of a new negative phase. However, monthly observations during 2024 reveal a steady neutral phase.

An eastward shift of the convection phase of the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) is forecast by all operational models. The MJO was semi-permanent in the tropical Indian Ocean to Maritime Continent since early August. The eastern shift is across the tropical East Pacific and Atlantic to West Africa through the next 2-3 weeks activating tropical cyclone activity in each ocean basin.