The outlook for JAN-26 is cold. The first half of JAN-26 is cold for most of Europe (except Portugal/Spain). The cold is stronger than the 30-year normal, especially East Europe. The Europe-West chill is slightly colder than last year and much colder than the last 2 mid-winter regimes for Europe-East.

The evolving stratospheric temperature anomaly pattern during the first half of January is warming across Eurasia and cold in North America, the direct opposite regime of early meteorological winter. Beneath the high variation in stratospheric temperature, the troposphere (below) responds by warming North America while very cold air is ongoing in Europe and develops in Siberia.

Next week is trending warmer except GFS ENS which maintains a colder pattern. Forecast models are disagreeable for January 9-15 although majority of solutions are trending colder. The week-4 forecast is prohibitively cold according to CFS/ECM and AI. CFS/ECM trend toward a thaw by early February.

Never a shortage of dramatic weather events as 2025 comes to a close. A lingering negative phase of the Antarctic oscillation (-AAO) causes a mid-latitude trough east of Argentina that extends northwestward to soak Brazil into the New Year. Meanwhile, excessive rainfall across Northern Australia will continue. The arctic air source region across Western Canada during December is likely to dissipate in early January due to a cold stratosphere.