The multivariate ENSO index (MEI) for MAY/JUN was +0.2 which indicates the global climate as related to ENSO phase is neutral. However, the conventional measure of ENSO phase, the Nino34 SSTA region, reached the El Nino threshold (+0.5C) in May and strengthened (+0.9C) in June.

Zonal wind speed anomalies were below normal across most of the Northern U.S. especially the Upper Midwest to Northeast U.S. sector due to anomalous high pressure centered in Canada and extending the northern states. Above normal zonal wind speeds were observed across Western Texas and Florida. Meridional wind speed anomalies were below normal from Western Texas to the Northeast U.S.

Marine heat wave off the West Coast of Europe weakens as an upper trough generates across this area into mid-July with a compensating hot and dry ridge emerging across Southern Europe and enhanced by Northwest Africa heat. Dry and hot focus shifts into South/Southeast Europe during mid-summer.

A wet soil moisture change zone emerged in June focused along and just east of the Continental Divide and across the western Great Plains. Operational forecasts in recent days have indicated the wet trend over the West-central U.S. during June will shift eastward and into the Midwest U.S. drought region in July, a somewhat unexpected regime change.